Before the start of last season I went thru the Patriots schedule and came-up with them finishing at 7-9. It turned-out that I was right-on with that prediction. I got four games wrong.
Since it worked-out for me last year I figured I'd give it a go again this season.
Added-in at the end is my prediction for the Steelers season, in case anybody was wondering.
I'll update the progress and how bad my prediction was on the site here, so everyone can laugh and tell me how wrong I was.
So here goes.........
Week-1 VS Dolphins
Mac Jones vs Tua Tagovailoa
The Patriots have the better defense and they’ll need it to play like it.
Turnovers should play a big part in this one. The team with the least of them should win.
It’s in Foxboro so there’s an edge there, but this won’t be easy.
If Tua is able to get out of the pocket and use his legs it could be the wildcard here.
This is a tough one, but I’ll have to give the edge to the Dolphins in Jones’ first NFL game.
Dolphins 23 Patriots 17 Record: 0-1
Week-2 AT Jets
It’s not the same ole Jets, but they’re still too far away from being able to compete for the division title.
Rookie QB Zach Wilson will get his first home start and Mac Jones will get his first road start.
There might be less pressure for Jones on the road than for Wilson at home here.
The Patriots defense should be too much for the young QB and the Jets team as a whole.
Patriots 26 Jets 16 Record: 1-1
Week-3 VS Saints
Jameis Winston this time, not Drew Brees.
There are a lot of weapons for Winston’s passing attack, and Alvin Kamara is always a threat on the ground, so the Pats defense will have to be sharp. They face another QB who can do damage if he’s let out of the pocket. They will also have to cover a great receiving corp without their top Cornerback, as Stephon Gilmore remains on the PUP list for this one.
The Saints had the 4th best defense in the league last year and the 5th best pass defense, so Mac Jones is going to get a taste of a top NFL defense in this one.
I think this one is a bit too big for Jones.
Saints 29 Patriots 16 Record: 1-2
Week-4 VS Buccaneers
He’s Baaaack. And it’s Sunday night.
Tom Brady will play on the other side of the field at Gillette Stadium for the first time. Perhaps that will throw him off? I doubt it.
With Gilmore still not available Brady and Co. should have success against the NE secondary.
Mac Jones will face another top defense here. The need for the patriots to keep-up with Brady should lead to a few turnovers from Jones and the Buc's should stay away from any real scare in this one.
Bucs 36 Patriots 23 Record: 1-3
Week-5 AT Texans
The Pats will face Tyrod Taylor, and not Desean Watson, and that will make a big difference.
I have the Patriots at 1-3 to this point, and if that’s the case they will really need a win here.
The Texans were worst in the last season against the rush, surrendering an average of 160-yards per game. This doesn’t bold well against a team that should lean heavily on its running game.
I expect this one to low-scoring and Mac Jones to make enough plays off of play-action to get the team their second win of the season.
Patriots 27 Texans 19 Record: 2-3
Week-6 VS Cowboys
The Patriots secondary will be tested in this one, and not having Stephon Gilmore will once again make it tough on their defense as a whole.
Dallas has a lot of weapons in the pass game and also has Ezekiel Elliot running the football, so staying in a dime defense all day won’t be possible. Play-action will be used a lot by the Cowboys to keep the Pats defense a step behind in the play recognition. That will help tax the Patriots defense and open-up the passing attack.
The Patriots will probably rely heavily on their rushing attack, as Dallas’ defense struggled to stop the run all of last season.
Their will be room the Mac Jones and company to maker some plays, and they will have to capitalize on some turnovers if they want to hang with the Cowboys in this one.
Cowboys 30 Patriots 22 Record: 2-4
Week-7 VS Jets
Rookie Zach Wilson gets a 2nd shot at the Patriots defense, but Stephon Gilmore will be available off of the PUP list and could make this go-around even tougher for Wilson.
There’s just not enough weapons on this young Jets team to be able to keep-up with a veteran Patriots team. Different week….same result.
Patriots 34 Jets 20 Record: 3-4
Week-8 AT Chargers
The Patriots head west on Halloween to face Justin Herbert and the Chargers who are coming off their bye week.
This one is another that’s tough for me to call, but with the Chargers well-rested and the Patriots flying across the country for this one I will have to give the edge to the Chargers.
They have enough offensive weapons to cause issues, and they will look for Joey Bosa to pressure Mac Jones and force balls into their secondary where the strength of the Chargers defense is.
Chargers 31 Patriots 26 Record: 3-5
Week-9 AT Panthers
The Patriots are very familiar with Panthers QB Sam Darnold, and will limit what he’s able to accomplish thru the air. If the Panthers get a win here it will because they got timely turnovers and Christian McCaffrey ran for well over 100-yards.
The Patriots will be coming back to the east coast from San Diego and will have their work cutout for them during the week leading-up to this one.
The Pats will put 8-9 guys up near the line of scrimmage and force the Panthers to put the game is Darnold’s hands, and that’s never worked-out too well for him.
Patriots 23 Panthers 19 Record: 4-5
Week-10 VS Browns
We should know by now if the Browns are for real. They have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and should be handful for just about any team.
Going into the season I’ll have to assume that they will be too much for the Patriots and their rookie QB. Mac Jones will feel some real pressure in this one from Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney.
Browns 33 Patriots 23 Record: 4-6
Week-11 AT Falcons
It’s a Thursday night game and a short week for both teams.
The Falcons had the worst pass defense in the NFL last season and haven’t done too much to improve that. Mac Jones will have his opportunities in this one.
The Falcons offense can still move the football, so I expect this one to be a fairly high scoring game.
The Patriots will control the tempo with the running game and keep Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense on the bench.
Patriots 34 Falcons 30 Record: 5-6
Week-12 VS Titans
It’s Ryan Tannehill and the Titans running attack that the Patriots will look to corral this week.
Derrick Henry will be keyed-on by the Patriots and Tannehill will look for room thru the air.
AJ Brown and Julio Jones will need to play a big part in this one since the Patriots will look to stack the box and get bodies to Derrick Henry.
The Titans defense can be thrown on and the Patriots will again use play-action to open-up some opportunities thru the air. Free agent acquisition Bud Dupree will look to make Mac Jones very uncomfortable in the pocket, but if he can’t get to him the rookie will have plays downfield.
ek-13 AT Bills
It’s a Monday-niter for these two division rivals.
The Bills will have extra rest after playing on Thursday night in week-12.
The Patriots have this one game left before they head to their bye w
If Stephon Gilmore is on the field for this one it will make the task of stopping Derrick Henry a little less daunting and the Patriots have a good chance in this one.
Patriots 27 Titans 24 Record: 6
Week-13 AT Bills
It’s a Monday-niter for these two division rivals.
The Bills will have extra rest after playing on Thursday night in week-12.
The Patriots have this one game left before they head to their bye week.
The two teams will again face each other 3-weeks from this one, and these two games will play a big role in who wins the AFC East.
If the Bills are healthy they’ll be a handful for anyone. Their offense has plenty of play-makers and their defense is good enough to at least slow-down an opposing offense so that it just can’t keep-up with Josh Allen and company.
The Patriots will certainly have their hands full in this one, and expect the weather for this December 6th game to play a part up in Buffalo NY.
Bills 37 Patriots 23 Record: 6-7
Week-14 Bye week
Week-15 AT Colts
This game will be in Indy but as of now the time is listed as TBD.
Both teams are coming off of their bye week and will be well rested.
Once again the Patriots will lean on their rushing attack, but the Colts were the #2 rush defense last season and will look to put the game in the Hands of rookie Mac Jones.
The Colts will hope to have a healthy Carson Wents, and their success this season depends on how well he plays. Nobody really knows what to expect from him…..will it be the Wents that threw 33 TD’s in 2017? Or, will it be the Wents who threw 16 TD’s and 15 INT’s in 2020?
That will make this game tough to predict, but I just think Wents will be a little better than Mac Jones and the Colts defense will make enough plays and give some short fields to their offense and the Colts will come away with the W.
Colts 28 Patriots 20 Record: 6-8
Week-16 VS Bills
The Patriots could be teetering on the playoff bubble at this point. The last team they want to see is the Bills again.
The Bills could have the division just about wrapped-up going into this one, and that could work in the Patriots favor.
The Patriots will lose some they are expected to win and they will win some they are expected to lose, and I think they bring enough into Foxboro as a hungry team to catch the Bills off-guard.
Patriots 29 Bills 25 Record: 7-8
Week-17 VS Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence will head back to the northeast to play back-to-back games in the cold of December.
Last week it was a flailing Jets team. This week it’s a hungry Patriots team that needs to stay out of the loss column if they want to make the playoffs as a Wildcard team.
The Patriots will throw everything they have at Lawrence and hope Mac Jones can limit the mistakes and make just enough plays to send the Jags back to sunny FLA with a loss.
This match-up of two rookie QB’s makes it a hard one to predict, but once again I think the weather and the must-win situation the Patriots will probably find themselves in will be the difference.
Patriots 27 Jaguars 24 Record: 8-8