Patriots 2022 Win Total Prediction
Updated: Sep 25, 2022
The full NFL schedule won't be out for another four days at the time of this writing, but I'm going to predict their wins and losses prior to knowing when and where they'll be traveling.
The over/under number for their win total at most sports books is 8.5.
That number seems very accurate to me. It would be hard for me to take any action on that number.
I'll go through the home games first, in no particular order.
The Ravens finished the 2021 at 8-9 after starting-out at 8-3. They had a league-high 19 players on injured/reserved and those injuries included some of their top players on both sides of the ball.
Both Running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards were lost before the season started. That was also the case for starting Pro Bowl Cornerback Marcus Peters.
The injuries kept piling-up and the team crumbled and missed the playoffs.
I expect the Ravens to be back to their old selves if they can stay healthy this year, and Lamar Jackson will always be a threat to be reckoned with.
For those reasons I expect a Ravens win here in Foxboro.
The Patriots got a win in Buffalo last season, but the hurricane force winds during that game really hurt the Bills offense and completely snuffed-out any chance QB Josh Allen had thru the air.
The two games after this regular season battle in Buffalo were completely lopsided, and the Bills had very little trouble moving the ball against the Patriots defense. They only punted once in those two games.
If Belichick can coach-up the weather and get some more wind for this one perhaps the Patriots could pull-out the upset.
There won't be many predicting a Patriots win here, and I won't be either.
This game will probably have the Patriots as home favorites.
Justin Fields will be under center for the Bears, and he doesn't have many weapons besides RB David Montgomery.
Until we're able to see any signs of life from the Bears offense I think the Patriots will be too much for the Bears. Give me the Pats in this one.
A game against any previous years AFC Champions will be tough for any team.
Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins and Jamar Chase will be a handful for any defense.
The Patriots will move the ball through the air, but the Bengals will do the same at a higher rate of success. Give me the Bengals in a fairly high-scoring game.
The Patriots will get a look at the #2 overall draft pick in DE Aidan Hutchinson and the #12 overall pick in WR Jameson Williams.
Jared Goff will be in his 2nd-year as the Lions QB, and I expect some improvement in his game.
This won't be easy for the Patriots, but it's still the Lions. They have some new weapons and they will need to play well in order to give them a chance, but again, it's still the Lions. I'll go with the Patriots in a close game.
The Patriots played in Indianapolis last season and lost 27-17. They'll get them in Foxboro this year.
Matt Jones threw two INT's and the Colts blocked a punt for a TD in that one.
All 17 of the Patriots points came in the 4th-quarter.
It will be Matt Ryan as the Colts QB this time. He and Jonathan Taylor will be a tough tandem for the Patriots defense.
The Colts defensive front-4 will be another tough match-up for the Patriots, and Matt Jones may not have much time in the pocket.
Give me the Colts with the road victory.
The Patriots usually struggle against this division rival.
The addition of Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins passing attack will only make this one tougher than the one they lost in Miami last season. Hill and WR Jaylen Waddle will be a tough match-up for the Patriots secondary.
It's still vs Miami in New England and I'll go with the trend here.
The Patriots defense will be a little too much for the young Tua Tagovailoa and the Pats should pull-out the "W" in a close one here.
The Patriots ought to hope this game is early on the schedule as opposed to later.
The Jets have added some serious rookie talent to both sides of the ball, and facing them before they get their feet wet in the NFL will be an advantage.
Rookie CB Sauce Gardner will match-up one-on-one with any Patriots WR, letting the Safety's pay more attention to stopping the Patriots run game.
Rookie WR Garrett Wilson has the speed and agility to be a problem on all levels of a defense.
Their other round-1 pick in this past draft is Jermaine Johnson III. If he can bring some of the outside rush ability he showed in his senior year he will be a problem for the Patriots O-line.
This should be a different Jets team this season, and their talent level has definitely increased, but until I see otherwise I will expect the Jets to be the Jets.
The Patriots won't let the Jets escape the basement of the AFC East just yet.
Patriots win here.
So, after going thru the Patriots home games, I have them with four wins.
4 wins and 4 losses with 9 other road games on the schedule.
Now I'll go thru the Patriots road games and see how many the can log in the win column.
We'll have to assume it will be Kyler Murray as the Cardinals QB for this one.
Their offense has a lot of weapons, and their defense isn't far behind.
I think there's just too much talent on the Cardinals roster for the Patriots to match-up against.
Give me the Cardinals with the win in Arizona.
The Patriots went into Orchard Park last year and got the win, but the wind played a big part in that one. QB Josh Allen and the Bills passing attack was all but eliminated due to the hurricane force wind gusts. We'll assume that won't be the case this time.
In the other two games these teams played against each other last year it was all Buffalo. The Bills punted only once thru both of those games and their offense was too much for the Patriots defense. Their hasn't been much of a change in personnel with the Patriots defense, so I'll expect a similar result.
Bills win the season series.
DeSaun Watson should be running the Browns offense in this one, unless he gets suspended at some point before.
On paper the Browns have the talent. Watson, RB Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, WR's Amari Cooper and TE David Njoku will give the Patriots defense problems.
On the other side of the ball, Myles Garrett and Chase Winovich will pressure Matt Jones all day.
I'll take the Browns at home here.
The Packers will look a little different without WR's Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in 2022, as both left via free agency.
It will be Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins and Christian Watkins that will be the top-3 pass-catchers for Aaron Rogers.
They'll still have A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones to maintain a potent run game.
The Patriots may have enough to make the Packers one-dimensional on offense, and then concentrate on stopping Jones and Dillon.
If Matt Jones can make a couple big throws the Patriots could win in Green Bay in a low-scoring game.
I'll go with what will probably be an upset here, and I'll take the Patriots on the road.
The Patriots won't have to face Davante Adams in Green Bay, but they'll have to face him in Las Vegas.
They'll also need to control Josh Jacobs on the ground.
The Raiders also now have ex-Patriot Chandler Jones on their defensive line, and he will be a tough task to keep off of Mack Jones.
Give me the Raiders here after the Patriots travel across the country.
The Patriots always struggle in Miami and there's no reason to think anything differently this time around.
Dolphins in a close game.
Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson will be the threats to the Patriots defense in this one.
But, there's not much else after those two.
The Patriots should have the better offense and defense on paper, so I'll take the Patriots to win this one in Minnesota.
In New York with three round-1 picks for the Jets........I'm going to think that in one of these two games that the two teams play against each other the Jets are going to surprise. If they are going to, it will probably happen in New York.
I'll take the Jets in an upset.
No Big Ben, but the will have Mitch Trubisky at QB. That won't scare many defenses.
The Steelers will try to run Najee Harris all day and hope turnovers won't be the difference.
The Patriots will look to exploit the Steelers and their 2021 worse run defense in the league.
The team that can run it better will win this one.
I'll take the Patriots here because Mitch Trubisky will be unable to make enough plays thru the air and the Patriots will be the better run defense.
So, that has me giving the Patriots three road wins out of their nine road games.
Combine that with my prediction of four wins at home gives the Patriots a final record of seven wins and nine losses.
Certainly getting to nine wins and making the "Over" on their Vegas win total line is possible, but I can't see how they could get to ten wins and a playoff birth in 2022.
This is a way-to-early prediction, and there's good chance it could change, but when the schedule is released on May 11th I'll be taking a look at it and going thru this exercise again to see how many wins I have for them at that point.
Until then, feel free to tell me that I'm wrong, and then where I'm wrong.
I'll also go thru the Steelers schedule in this same manner to see how many wins they'll be short of going to the playoffs, so stay tuned for that.