Week-15 Betting Update And Sunday's Best Bets
I went into Saturday at +$67. It went down from there.
The Bills covered the 5-points and I pulled-in $50 there.
The Panthers covered the +14 with the tease, but the total didn't go over the 45.5-points, so I lost $33 on that one.
I also needed the Panthers to score at least 21-points, and that didn't happen either. So, I took another loss of $33 there.
Those totals equal a loss of $16 on Saturday.
The +$67 I was working with going into Saturday was turned into a +$51 with the loss of the $16 over the course of the day.
So, I enter Sunday's games at a +$51.
I will now look to add to that number with three picks on Sunday. Again, you'd be wise to stay away from these picks, as my track record proves that.
Here goes nothing...........
Dolphins -1 vs Patriots (over/under 41.5)
This one has two teams fighting for their playoff lives.
The Dolphins need to win to hold onto their #7 ranking in the AFC and stay in the running for a Wildcard spot.
The Patriots need to win this one in order to avoid playoff elimination with two games to go after this one.
Both of these teams are led by their defenses. The Dolphins are 2nd in the league in points against and the Patriots rank #7.
But, it's the offenses that will decide this one.
Both teams struggle on that side of the ball, and the team that can convert 3rd-downs at the higher rate should win this one, and the best team in the league when it comes to not giving-up first downs on third down is the Dolphins.
The Patriots offense ranks 22nd in the league when it comes to converting on 3rd-downs, and I think that will be a big factor in this one.
The Dolphins offense isn't statistically a good one, but with Tua Tagovailoa now under center they are far more dangerous due to the threat of what he can do outside the pocket. The Dolphins will also have WR DeVante Parker for this one after a
hamstring-pull in last week's game, and he will be someone the Patriots defense has to watch carefully.
Cam Newton has struggled all season in the passing game and I think he will have to rush for over 100-yards if the Patriots are going to win this one.
None of the rushing yards for the Patriots will come from rookie RB Damien Harris, who will not play in this game due to an ankle injury suffered in practice this past week.
Sony Michel will get the start instead.
I look for a low-scoring one here, and for the Dolphins to make enough plays on offense and enough 3rd-down stops on defense to get the win at home here.
I'll lay $50 on the Dolphins at -1.
Cardinals -6.5 vs Eagles (over/under 49.5)
QB Jalen Hurts will get his second career start for the Eagles as they look to catch Washington for the division lead and stay in contention for a playoff spot.
The Cardinals are the 7th-seed in the NFC playoff race and need to string some wins together if they're going to hold onto a playoff spot. They snapped a 3-game losing streak last week with a win over the Giants.
This game will come down to how effective Jalen Hurts can be for the Eagles. He'll need to rush for 100-yards or more if they are going to keep pace with Cardinals' QB Kyler Murray and his ability to make plays with his legs as well.
There is a quite a bit of risk here because we're not sure what to expect from Hurts in his second start. If he can make enough plays with his arm it will keep the Cardinals defense guessing and open-up the running game.
The Eagles rushed for 246-yards against the Saints last week, who were at the time the #1 defense in the league.
I think the ability of Hurts in the run game will keep this one close, so I'll take the 6.5-points and lay $30 on the Eagles in Arizona.
Browns -6.5 @ Giants (over/under 44)
The Browns lost a heart-breaker to the Ravens last week, but had won four straight prior to that. They have been playing very good football lately and are fighting to hold onto the #5 seed in the AFC.
The Giants are also fighting to catch Washington for the division lead and a playoff spot, but they will most likely do so tonight without QB Daniel Jones, who is suffering from ankle and hamstring injuries.
Colt McCoy will get the start for the Giants and will try to keep pace with a Browns offense that has been clicking as of late.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will pose a huge problem for the Giants 7th-ranked rush defense. Browns QB Baker Mayfield and company should be able to make plays in the passing game and keep the Giants defense off-balance.
The Browns average 156-yards on the ground but only 218-yards per game thru the air.
If the Giants can contain the Browns' running game and force Mayfield to throw into coverage and turn the ball over they will have a chance in this one.
But, I just think the Browns will be too much for Colt McCoy and a Giants offense that ranks 31st in the league.
Both teams will try to run the ball, control the clock and avoid turnovers. Whoever does those things better will win this one. I think that will be the Browns.
Give me the Browns -6.5 in this one for $50.
Good luck Sunday, and check back tomorrow to see how poorly I did this week!